According to the forecast of Fitch Solutions, in the next ten years the world consumption of aluminium will increase on average by 2.8% per year, which will increase from 62.9 mn tonnes in the current year to 79.7 million in 2028
According to Fitch analysts, the main sources of growth in this market will be the automotive and construction industry. Moreover, if the consumption of aluminum in the construction sector will expand, primarily in developing and new market countries, the automotive industry will increase demand for aluminum products, primarily in the United States, the European Union and Japan.
The use of lighter aluminium in the automotive industry will be dictated mainly by environmental considerations. In addition, this metal will be more widely used by manufacturers of electric vehicles, where the problem of weight loss is more acute due to the presence of a heavy battery.
According to Fitch estimates, primary aluminum smelting will grow at a slightly slower pace, so that the global market will be in deficit from 2019 to 2023. In order to ensure uninterrupted supply of metal, automakers will more often enter into direct long-term agreements with manufacturers of aluminum products.
In China, production, according to the company’s forecasts, in the next decade will add, on average, only 2.4% per year, sharply reducing the growth rate compared to 11.7% in 2009-2018.the volume of smelting will be 34.3 million tons in 2019 and 41.9 million tons in 2028. the main reasons for the slowdown, Fitch analysts believe the tightening of environmental standards in China and the closure of outdated enterprises.
Earlier, similar conclusions about the scarcity of the global aluminum market were made at the Aluminum Symposium held by S&P Global Platts in San Diego (USA) in the second half of January.